A quick read on the latest public U.S. housing data—and what the numbers may mean for buyers.
Fed Chair Warsh gives no hint on October decision; markets lean toward a hold
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the IMF–World Bank meetings in Bangkok, declined to prejudge the October 27–28 decision, saying he does not pre-commit on rates. Market pricing put the odds of a hold near 83–86%, with a hike seen at roughly 14%, after the September meeting set the target range at 3.75%–4.00%. Colleagues have publicly pushed back on his call for a quieter Fed that offers no forward guidance.
Treasury yields post their biggest weekly drop since February as bonds rally
The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at about 5.10%, its biggest weekly decline since February after touching near 5.31% on October 5, per MarketWatch. Societe Generale noted the 10-year at 5.06% on October 15, with the 2-year at 4.74% and the 30-year at 5.41%, as the pullback left parts of the curve looking relatively cheap.
September inflation beats expectations: CPI 3.7%, core 2.6%, PPI 6.3%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported September CPI up 3.7% from a year ago and core CPI up 2.6%, each 0.1 point above the consensus forecast. Producer prices rose 6.3% from a year ago, while the 10-year Treasury yield ended the week near 5.10%.
September jobs: 29,000 added, unemployment rises to 4.2%
The September jobs report showed just 29,000 jobs added, far below the consensus of 84,000, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Initial jobless claims for the week ended October 10 were 199,000.
Existing-home sales rose in September as inventory hit its highest since 2019
Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, per National Association of Realtors data reported by Realtor.com. The median price rose 1.3% from a year ago to $417,500, a September record. Inventory rose 1.9% to 1.6 million homes, or 4.8 months of supply, the highest since November 2019, giving buyers more negotiating room.
