A quick read on the latest public U.S. housing data—and what the numbers may mean for buyers.
10-year Treasury yield falls below 5%, biggest daily drop in over a year
The 10-year Treasury yield sank below 5% on Thursday, touching 4.96% — the lowest in nearly a month and about 40 basis points below the October 7 multi-decade high. Barron’s reported the 11.2-basis-point one-day drop was the largest since August 2025. The rally was driven by a flight to safety as AI-related stocks sold off on Meta and Tesla earnings, plus rising Middle East tensions. Goldman Sachs strategists noted that AI-led re-pricing of the capex cycle is easing bond supply pressure.
Mortgage rates drop for the first time in two months
Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 7.32% for the week ended October 22, down from 7.40% a week earlier — the first decline in eight weeks and the largest weekly drop since early July. Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater said the move offers buyers “a bit of breathing room,” though rates remain well above last year’s levels. Realtor.com economist Jake Krimmel cautioned that rates surged 74 basis points over the fall and have only retraced a fraction of it.
Redfin: U.S. pending home sales sink to a record low
Redfin reported Thursday that U.S. pending home sales fell 1.9% in the four weeks ended October 18, hitting the lowest level since Redfin began tracking in 2021. All 50 of the largest U.S. metro areas saw declines for a second straight week. The typical buyer’s monthly housing payment hit a median of $2,796, the second-highest on record. Redfin says buyers now hold their biggest negotiating edge in more than a decade, as sellers outnumber buyers nationwide.
September jobs: 29,000 added, unemployment rises to 4.2%
The September jobs report showed just 29,000 jobs added, far below the consensus of 84,000, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Initial jobless claims for the week ended October 10 were 199,000.
Existing-home sales rose in September as inventory hit its highest since 2019
Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, per National Association of Realtors data reported by Realtor.com. The median price rose 1.3% from a year ago to $417,500, a September record. Inventory rose 1.9% to 1.6 million homes, or 4.8 months of supply, the highest since November 2019, giving buyers more negotiating room.
