A quick read on the latest public U.S. housing data—and what the numbers may mean for buyers.
Fed expected to hold rates on Oct 28; December hike still on the table
Market pricing put the odds of an FOMC hold on October 28 at about 94%, with the federal funds rate staying at 3.75%–4.00%. KPMG Economics notes Chair Warsh has lined up support for a pause from senior officials, while the September meeting minutes showed most participants still saw one more hike by year-end as likely appropriate. Attention now shifts to the December 8–9 meeting, where markets price a roughly 73% chance of another increase.
10-year Treasury yield plunges below 5%, biggest one-day drop since March 2023
The 10-year Treasury yield tumbled 19.3 basis points on Thursday to 4.952% — its first close below 5% in three months and the largest single-day drop since March 2023. The flight to safety was triggered by French fiscal turmoil, which sent France’s 10-year OAT yield to its highest since 2002, and by a sharp tech-stock selloff on doubts about AI spending returns. The yield edged back to about 4.99% on Friday morning.
Mortgage rates fall for the first time in two months
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed the 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined in the week ended October 22 — the first drop in eight weeks and the largest weekly decline since early July. Chief economist Sam Khater said the move offers buyers “a bit of breathing room.” Realtor.com economist Jake Krimmel cautioned that rates surged over the fall and have only retraced a fraction of it, so borrowers still face a high-rate market.
Redfin: U.S. pending home sales sink to a record low
Redfin reported Thursday that U.S. pending home sales fell 1.9% in the four weeks ended October 18, hitting the lowest level since Redfin began tracking in 2021. All 50 of the largest U.S. metro areas saw declines for a second straight week. The typical buyer’s monthly housing payment hit a median of $2,796, the second-highest on record. Redfin says buyers now hold their biggest negotiating edge in more than a decade, as sellers outnumber buyers nationwide.
Weekly jobless claims drop to 194,000, near a 57-year low
Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 194,000 in the week ended October 17, below the 200,000 consensus and close to the lowest level since 1969 — a sign layoffs remain rare. The report underscores a “low hiring, low firing” labor market: September added just 29,000 jobs while the unemployment rate held at 4.2%.
